Эксперты оценили перспективы суда «Газпрома» с «Нафтогазом»

Эксперты оценили перспективы суда «Газпрома» с «Нафтогазом»

Европа встала на сторону Украины

Эксперты рынка утверждают, что сумма многократно завышена, однако Украина, как всегда, держит карман шире. Ранее «Газпром» уже влетел на кругленькую сумму в $2,5 млрд: Стокгольмский арбитраж обязал корпорацию выплатить эти деньги украинской стороне. То ли еще будет: Украина явно не намерена отступать и грозит России новыми исками в европейских судах и прочими неприятностями, которые могут обернуться для «Газпрома» огромными издержками — финансовыми и репутационными.

Эксперты оценили перспективы суда «Газпрома» с «Нафтогазом»

«Киев получит все до копейки», — пригрозил президент Украины Петр Порошенко, комментируя тяжбы «Нафтогаза» с «Газпромом». Он также добавил: если Россия будет продолжать тянуть время, не выплачивая деньги по выигранному в Стокгольмском арбитраже транзитному спору, тем больше ей будет стоить эта задержка, имея ввиду пени. А «капать» они уже начали: Россия подала апелляцию на решение арбитров и ожидает нового решения. Кстати, глава «Газпрома» Алексей Миллер объяснил, почему корпорация решила расторгнуть контракты с «Нафтогазом». «Чтобы не платить новые штрафы»: такое объяснение он дал на встрече с премьер-министром Дмитрием Медведевым.

Судя по всему, украинская сторона очень рассчитывает на поддержку Европы в газовом конфликте с Россией. Например, к нему уже подключилась Еврокомиссия с легкой руки главы европейской дипломатии Федерики Могерини. Она заявила, что провела переговоры с Порошенко по этому вопросу и уверена, что «Газпром» должен выполнять все договорные обстоятельства. Впрочем, у Европы есть поводы волноваться: введенные Россией газовые ограничение касаются и транзита топлива через территорию Украины в другие страны. Прекрасно понимая невыигрышность положения «Газпрома», Порошенко в своих громких заявлениях прочит России полный провал международной торговли, разрушение и хаос.

Угрозы угрозами, однако пока Украина старается действовать решительно. Так, Киев начал арестовывать имущество «Газпрома» на Украине. В то же время в «Нафтогазе» пообещали, что будут налагать взыскания на российский газ в европейских странах. Как считают в украинской нефтегазовой компании, стоимость транзита через Украину вообще слишком занижена, и этот факт Незалежная также намерена доказать в суде. Не исключено, что мнимые «недополучки» станут предметом разбирательства в следующих арбитражных процессах. В «Нафтогазе» уточняют, что за восемь с лишним лет «Газпром» задолжал компании около $20 млрд.

В последнее время судебная активность «Нафтогаза» нарастает, отмечают эксперты рынка. «После решения Стокгольмского арбитража о выплате «Газпромом» $4,6 млрд (с условием противоположных взысканий — $2,5 млрд) по контракту на транзит газа через Украину, «Нафтогаз» идет ва-банк, — говорит ведущий аналитик ГК TeleTrade Марк Гойхман, — Украинская сторона пытается использовать новую волну напряженности, существующую в последнее время между Западом и Россией. На этом фоне компания увеличила сумму иска по крымским активам с $5 до $8 млрд: речь идет об имуществе компании «Черноморнефтегаз», принадлежавшей «Нафтогазу» и поставляющей газ крымчанам. Она была национализирована по решению местного парламента после присоединения полуострова к России».

Как отмечает аналитик, аппетиты «Нафтогаза» растут и растут: первоначальный иск, поданный в октябре 2016 года, был на сумму $2,6 млрд, затем увеличился до $5 млрд и с учетом процентов сумма поднялась до $8 млрд. «Само по себе трехкратное увеличение суммы уже подвергает сомнению ее обоснованность, — убежден Гойхман, — Кроме того, Москва считает, что этот иск не относится к юрисдикции указанного суда. Предположить его вердикт достаточно сложно, поскольку на решение может повлиять причудливое переплетение политических, экономических, юридических факторов. Киев ожидает начала рассмотрения иска в мае 2018 года».

Щекотливости ситуации добавляет и то, что демарш «Газпрома» рикошетом бьет по Евросоюзу. «Европа всерьез озабочена возможностью срыва поставок в страны ЕС. Это создает дополнительную напряженность между всеми сторонами. Финансовые потери «Газпрома» от недополученной выручки, возможных санкций сопровождаются вероятными репутационными издержками. Европа может усомниться в надежности «Газпрома» как поставщика», — добавил наш собеседник.

Любопытно, что независимые участники рынка оценивают стоимость крымских активов всего в $1-1,2 млрд. Таким образом, претензионная стоимость ущерба, возмещения которого требует Украина, завышена как минимум в 7 раз.

«Однако здесь важно понять: международное арбитражное право ясно и недвусмысленно запрещает неисполнение обязательств сторонами по одной сделке объяснять нарушениями, конфликтами, форс-мажорами по другой. Поэтому у Украины есть право подать в суд на Россию по факту утраты «Черноморнефтегаза», и этот иск был бы выделен в отдельное судопроизводство, которое не имело бы ничего общего с конфликтом «Газпрома» с «Нафтогазом». Все остальное, если оно имеет место, можно назвать произволом», — полагает инвестиционный аналитик Global FX Владимир Рожанковский. По его словам, у Украины есть все шансы на успех в суде. А «Газпром», скорее всего, вынужден будет выполнить предписание суда, поскольку он относится к той же юрисдикции, в которой у российской компании имеется существенный коммерческий интерес.

«Вместе с тем, «Газпром» может и наверняка будет подавать апелляцию в отношении неисполненных в отношении него контрактных обязательств со стороны «Нафтогаза», поскольку выданная судом формулировка «в связи с тяжелым экономическим положением Украины» не является судебным термином», — заключил собеседник «МК».

Читайте материал: Топливная война Москвы и Киева: Европа выбирает газовых союзников

Получайте короткую вечернюю рассылку лучшего в «МК» — подпишитесь на наш Telegram.

Источник: mk.ru

80 комментариев

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