Эксперты предрекли эскалацию военного конфликта между Ереваном и Баку

Аналитики Центра анализа стратегий и технологий предупреждают о высокой вероятности эскалации конфликта между Азербайджаном и Арменией. Причем военное превосходство азербайджанцев над армянами все более очевидно

Эксперты предрекли эскалацию военного конфликта между Ереваном и Баку

Шуша, Нагорный Карабах. 19 апреля 2015 года

(Фото: Brendan Hoffman / Getty Images)

Обострение военного конфликта между Арменией и Азербайджаном о принадлежности Нагорного Карабаха неизбежно. К такому выводу пришли эксперты Центра анализа стратегий и технологий в докладе «В ожидании бури: Южный Кавказ» (есть в распоряжении РБК).

Конфликт может резко обостриться по нескольким причинам: из-за технического превосходства Азербайджана, возможного роста цен на нефть, демографического дисбаланса, ​а также из-за невозможности юридического закрепления за армянами захваченных некарабахских территорий Азербайджана, считают эксперты.

Сила нефти

На протяжении десятилетия после Карабахского конфликта (1991–1994 годы) между Азербайджаном с одной стороны и Арменией и непризнанной Нагорно-Карабахской Республикой (НКР) с другой сохранялся баланс сил. Американское эмбарго в 1990-х годах на поставки вооружений в Азербайджан и поддержка Армении Россией выравнивали расстановку сил в Южно-Кавказском регионе.

Перелом произошел в 2000-х годах — после резкого увеличения стоимости нефти, отмечают эксперты центра. Соотношение сил изменилось в пользу Азербайджана — страны с развитой нефтедобывающей отраслью. Приток нефтедолларов позволил Азербайджану увеличить военные расходы и численность армии. Если в 2001 году, по подсчетам авторов доклада, военный бюджет страны составлял $300 млн, то в 2013 году он достиг $3,7 млрд и равнялся всему государственному бюджету Армении, сказано в докладе. По данным SIPRI, военные расходы Азербайджана в 2001 году составили около $300 млн, в 2013 году — около $2,8 млрд, а их пик пришелся на 2015 год — $3 млрд.

Численность Вооруженных сил Азербайджана в 2016 году достигла 126 тыс. человек, по данным Military Balance. «С учетом ведомственных частей, президентской гвардии и различных военизированных формирований, а также гражданского персонала общая численность людей под ружьем в Азербайджане составляет не менее 250 тыс. человек», — утверждают в Центре анализа стратегий и технологий.

Вооруженные силы Армении с 2002 года и по настоящее время составляют около 45 тыс. человек. Численность армии обороны Нагорного Карабаха — около 20 тыс. человек, из них половина — призывники из Армении.

Приток нефтяных денег позволил начать масштабное, хотя и довольно беспорядочное перевооружение армии Азербайджана. В больших количествах были закуплены современные основные танки, боевые бронемашины, зенитные ракетные комплексы, самолеты, вертолеты, противотанковые управляемые ракеты, артиллерийские системы, средства обнаружения (приборы ночного видения, лазерные приборы разведки, тепловизоры) и беспилотные летательные аппараты. Основными поставщиками стали Израиль, Украина, Белоруссия, Грузия, Турция и Россия. Новые возможности Баку были продемонстрированы в ходе «апрельской войны» (четырехдневная война в Нагорном Карабахе в апреле 2016 года): столкновения показали, что оснащенные современной техникой азербайджанские войска имеют преимущество в ночных боевых действиях.

Эксперты предрекли эскалацию военного конфликта между Ереваном и Баку

Нефтяная качалка в Баку, Азербайджан. 25 июня 2015 года

(Фото: Дмитрий Ловецкий / AP)

Усиление Азербайджана вызвало реакцию России, которая с 2013 года увеличила поставки вооружений в Армению. В феврале 2016 года ей был предоставлен кредит на покупку вооружений на сумму $200 млн. Поставки включали пусковые установки РСЗО «Смерч» и ракеты к ним, ПЗРК, средства радиотехнической разведки, огнеметные системы «ТОС-1А», легкое и стрелковое оружие. Кроме того, после «апрельской войны» Ереван закупил индивидуальные приборы ночного видения и тепловизоры, датчики движения, лазерные приборы разведки и беспилотники, которые были в дефиците в НКР.

И хотя в связи с падением мировых цен на нефть военные расходы Азербайджана начали снижаться и с 2015 года составляют $1,55–1,7 млрд в год, в средне- и долгосрочной перспективе такие расходы для армянской стороны остаются недостижимыми, считают эксперты Центра анализа стратегий и технологий. В 2017 году военные расходы Армении составили $440 млн, в 2016-м — $436 млн.

Демографический кризис

В советское время население Азербайджанской ССР и Армянской ССР росло сопоставимыми темпами. Но с 1993 года ситуация изменилась, отмечают аналитики.

Население Азербайджана, несмотря на активную эмиграцию, продолжало увеличиваться на 1–2,5% в год. Население Армении из-за падения рождаемости и еще более массовой эмиграции, в основном молодежи, начало быстро сокращаться. В 1993–1995 годах сокращение численности населения составляло до 3% в год. С учетом исходно меньшей численности населения Армении это привело к увеличению демографического дисбаланса.

В 1993 году численность населения Армении и НКР составляла 3,6 млн человек против 7,44 млн человек в Азербайджане, в 2000 году — 3,37 млн против 8 млн, в 2014 году — 3,15 млн человек против 9,5 млн человек.

В возрастной структуре населения Азербайджана преобладают годные к несению военной службы молодые люди, в то время как население Армении стареет, отмечают авторы доклада. В 2016 году количество лиц призывного возраста в Азербайджане составило 800 тыс. человек против 225 тыс. в Армении.

Если демографическая тенденция не изменится, то население Армении может сократиться до 3 млн человек в 2030 году и до 2,7 млн в 2050 году. Население Азербайджана, согласно расчетам ООН, увеличится до 10,7 млн к 2030 году и до 11 млн человек к 2050 году, отмечают аналитики.

Социальные проблемы

Баку сталкивается с растущей социальной напряженностью, порожденной в том числе и демографическим ростом, сказано в докладе. Наплыв неустроенной сельской молодежи в города является фактором серьезного внутриполитического риска.

Любое проявление Арменией слабости может стать поводом для Баку начать в Нагорном Карабахе новые военные действия. И если атака будет молниеносной, Баку может одержать победу.

Эксперты предрекли эскалацию военного конфликта между Ереваном и Баку

Солдаты армии обороны Нагорного Карабаха возле села Мадагиз. 6 апреля 2016 года

(Фото: Reuters)

На правовое решение конфликта пока рассчитывать не приходится, считают аналитики Центра анализа стратегий и технологий. «Само обсуждение вопроса о принадлежности Карабаха обуславливается азербайджанцами возвращением им территорий, не входивших в состав бывшей Нагорно-Карабахской автономной области. Между тем даже возможное возвращение только лишь Агдамского и Физулинского районов уже значительно ослабило бы устойчивость армянской обороны, возврат же Лачинского или Кельбаджарского района подрывает ее полностью», — объясняют авторы доклада.

«Международная легализация фактического статуса Карабаха отсутствует, армянская сторона обрекается на перманентную гонку вооружений с Азербайджаном при несопоставимых экономических и демографических ресурсах», — приходят к выводу военные эксперты.

Российский фактор

Сегодня российская дипломатия решает непростую задачу сохранения баланса в отношениях с ценным партнером и неизбежным союзником, отметил замдиректора Центра анализа стратегий и технологий Константин Макиенко.

Россия участвует в сирийском конфликте, также необходимо принимать во внимание высокую вероятность провокаций в Донбассе, напомнил он. «Третий очаг напряженности России с ее отнюдь не беспредельными ресурсами совершенно не нужен.​ Между тем вся постсоветская история показывает, что Москва не может себе позволить игнорировать кризисы в Закавказье», — считает Макиенко. Поэтому задача состоит в том, чтобы не допустить такого развития событий, при котором потребовалось бы «разорительное, политически крайне нежелательное и вообще допустимое лишь как самая крайняя мера военное вмешательство», резюмируют он.

Российская база в Армении

У России в Армении есть 102-я военная база, где, по информации на конец 2017 года, служат не менее 1500 срочников. Общая численность личного состава базы — около 4 тыс. военнослужащих. Из всех закавказских баз только 102-я имеет в своем составе постоянные авиационные силы. Кроме того, в Армении дислоцированы два дивизиона ЗРС С-300В, способных перехватывать не только воздушные цели, но и оперативно-тактические баллистические ракеты. ПВО ближней зоны обеспечивает дивизион установок «Бук-М1-2». 20 августа 2010 года Россия и Армения продлили срок действия договора о размещении базы до 2044 года​.

Конечно, опасность перехода конфликта в активную фазу существует, поскольку он до сих пор не урегулирован, отметил в разговоре с РБК первый зампред комитета Совета Федерации по международным делам Владимир Джабаров. По его словам, Россия прилагает все усилия, чтобы такие вопросы решались за столом переговоров. «При этом я считаю, что решение данного конфликта нужно оставить будущим поколениям. Сейчас очень сложно найти выход из ситуации, потому что каждая сторона настаивает на своем», — сказал Джабаров.

Автор:
Инна Сидоркова.

Источник: rbc.ru

41 комментарий

I was curious if you ever thought of changing the page layout of your website? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or two images. Maybe you could space it out better?

I simply had to appreciate you once more. I am not sure the things that I would have accomplished in the absence of the type of secrets shared by you relating to such a field. It was a distressing case in my circumstances, however , understanding a new specialised manner you treated it made me to leap with fulfillment. I am happy for this service and even trust you find out what an amazing job you are always putting in instructing many others via your site. I am certain you haven’t got to know all of us.

A lot of thanks for all your effort on this web site. Kate delights in participating in research and it’s easy to understand why. Many of us learn all relating to the compelling medium you make informative secrets via your web site and as well as encourage response from other individuals on the subject while our own princess has always been starting to learn a lot. Take pleasure in the remaining portion of the new year. Your doing a really great job.

I would like to express appreciation to you just for rescuing me from this predicament. As a result of browsing throughout the internet and seeing strategies that were not powerful, I believed my life was done. Living minus the approaches to the difficulties you’ve resolved as a result of your article content is a serious case, as well as those which may have adversely damaged my career if I hadn’t noticed your site. Your mastery and kindness in touching all the things was tremendous. I am not sure what I would’ve done if I had not encountered such a thing like this. I can also at this point look ahead to my future. Thanks so much for this skilled and effective guide. I will not be reluctant to refer your site to any individual who should have guide on this issue.

The subsequent time I learn a weblog, I hope that it doesnt disappoint me as a lot as this one. I imply, I know it was my choice to read, however I actually thought youd have something attention-grabbing to say. All I hear is a bunch of whining about something that you might fix if you happen to werent too busy searching for attention.

I wanted to create you one tiny remark in order to give thanks once again about the pleasing ideas you have discussed on this site. This has been quite extremely open-handed with you to present easily what most people might have offered as an e-book to generate some profit on their own, mostly seeing that you could possibly have done it if you desired. The smart ideas also served to provide a good way to fully grasp that someone else have the identical dreams the same as my own to understand much more in terms of this condition. I am sure there are thousands of more pleasant occasions ahead for many who examine your blog.

I wanted to post you that very little note in order to thank you over again about the extraordinary solutions you have shown on this website. It’s simply wonderfully open-handed with you to convey unhampered just what numerous people would have marketed for an ebook in order to make some bucks for their own end, most notably now that you could have tried it in the event you desired. Those smart ideas as well worked like the good way to be certain that other individuals have similar keenness just as my very own to see a great deal more with regard to this condition. I am certain there are numerous more enjoyable occasions up front for many who start reading your blog post.

I needed to write you a tiny observation to help thank you again for the unique knowledge you have documented in this case. It has been so incredibly open-handed of you to offer freely just what most of us could have sold as an e-book in order to make some profit for their own end, especially now that you could possibly have done it if you ever desired. Those inspiring ideas also acted to become a great way to be certain that other people have a similar fervor similar to my very own to grasp many more pertaining to this problem. I know there are millions of more pleasurable moments ahead for individuals who read your blog.

I in addition to my guys were actually examining the good key points found on the website and so at once developed a horrible suspicion I had not thanked the web site owner for those secrets. These people had been passionate to read all of them and now have seriously been taking advantage of these things. Thank you for being quite accommodating as well as for picking out varieties of really good subject matter millions of individuals are really eager to learn about. Our honest regret for not saying thanks to earlier.

I have to show my thanks to the writer just for bailing me out of this issue. Just after looking out throughout the search engines and getting methods which were not productive, I thought my life was done. Existing without the strategies to the difficulties you have solved by means of this post is a critical case, as well as ones that could have adversely affected my entire career if I hadn’t come across your web blog. Your good expertise and kindness in taking care of every part was helpful. I don’t know what I would have done if I had not come upon such a stuff like this. It’s possible to now relish my future. Thanks very much for the high quality and effective guide. I won’t be reluctant to refer your blog to anyone who will need guide about this matter.

A lot of thanks for all your valuable work on this blog. Kim loves carrying out investigations and it is easy to see why. We learn all of the lively mode you present great tactics by means of this website and therefore strongly encourage response from visitors on this article while our own daughter has always been learning a lot. Take pleasure in the remaining portion of the new year. You’re performing a glorious job.

My wife and i have been quite satisfied that Albert could finish up his investigations using the precious recommendations he discovered in your web pages. It is now and again perplexing just to happen to be giving away steps the others have been selling. So we keep in mind we now have the website owner to give thanks to for this. All the explanations you have made, the easy web site navigation, the friendships your site give support to foster — it’s most excellent, and it’s really leading our son and our family consider that that issue is entertaining, which is certainly quite indispensable. Thank you for all!

My wife and i were cheerful that Louis managed to finish off his basic research from your ideas he grabbed from your web site. It’s not at all simplistic just to happen to be giving freely things that other folks may have been selling. And we all see we’ve got the writer to appreciate for that. Those illustrations you’ve made, the straightforward website navigation, the relationships you will make it easier to engender — it’s got everything spectacular, and it is leading our son in addition to our family understand the theme is cool, and that is especially vital. Many thanks for the whole lot!

Thank you a lot for providing individuals with an extremely splendid chance to read from here. It can be very superb and stuffed with a good time for me and my office peers to search your blog nearly three times weekly to read through the latest tips you have got. Not to mention, I’m always impressed with the astonishing principles served by you. Certain 3 facts in this posting are honestly the most impressive we have had.

A lot of thanks for all your valuable labor on this blog. My mom enjoys conducting investigations and it’s easy to see why. Many of us notice all concerning the lively ways you provide very useful items through the web site and as well strongly encourage participation from other individuals about this area plus our girl is undoubtedly becoming educated a lot of things. Take advantage of the rest of the year. You’re the one conducting a wonderful job.

Thanks a lot for providing individuals with an extremely special chance to read in detail from this website. It’s usually so terrific plus full of amusement for me and my office mates to search your site at minimum three times in one week to read the new tips you have got. And lastly, we are at all times fascinated with your powerful techniques you give. Certain 1 tips in this posting are ultimately the best we’ve ever had.

My spouse and i have been peaceful Emmanuel could complete his basic research out of the precious recommendations he discovered through the weblog. It is now and again perplexing just to continually be giving for free tips and tricks some other people may have been making money from. Therefore we see we need the writer to thank for this. The type of illustrations you made, the easy site menu, the relationships your site give support to foster — it’s everything unbelievable, and it’s really assisting our son and our family do think this topic is cool, which is extraordinarily mandatory. Thank you for the whole lot!

I not to mention my pals came examining the great suggestions on the website and so all of a sudden I got a horrible suspicion I had not expressed respect to the website owner for those techniques. Most of the young men had been for that reason stimulated to see all of them and have in actuality been using those things. We appreciate you getting quite accommodating as well as for choosing some amazing issues millions of individuals are really needing to be aware of. My personal sincere regret for not expressing gratitude to sooner.

I simply wanted to write a simple message so as to express gratitude to you for the magnificent strategies you are giving out on this website. My time consuming internet lookup has finally been paid with reasonable insight to write about with my classmates and friends. I would state that that many of us readers are definitely blessed to be in a magnificent network with very many marvellous individuals with insightful concepts. I feel somewhat grateful to have seen the website and look forward to so many more fun minutes reading here. Thank you once again for everything.

I wish to voice my passion for your kindness in support of folks who must have help with the study. Your personal commitment to getting the message all-around was especially invaluable and have constantly made others much like me to realize their aims. Your own useful information denotes a lot a person like me and even further to my colleagues. Thank you; from each one of us.

I simply had to appreciate you once again. I am not sure the things I could possibly have undertaken in the absence of the type of suggestions contributed by you about that area. It actually was an absolute frustrating problem in my position, nevertheless being able to view a well-written manner you treated it took me to cry over contentment. Now i am happier for the advice and pray you realize what an amazing job that you are undertaking teaching the others thru your webblog. I am certain you haven’t encountered all of us.

I as well as my guys have already been viewing the best things on your site and so all of a sudden came up with a terrible suspicion I had not thanked the blog owner for them. All the boys had been certainly thrilled to read through them and have now unquestionably been taking advantage of these things. Many thanks for really being well accommodating and then for using this form of beneficial areas most people are really desperate to discover. Our sincere apologies for not saying thanks to you sooner.

I wish to express some appreciation to you for rescuing me from this particular situation. Because of surfing through the world wide web and seeing tips which are not pleasant, I assumed my entire life was over. Living minus the solutions to the difficulties you have fixed as a result of your good report is a crucial case, and ones that might have negatively damaged my career if I had not discovered your blog. Your ability and kindness in dealing with every aspect was very helpful. I don’t know what I would’ve done if I had not come upon such a step like this. I’m able to now relish my future. Thank you so much for your reliable and sensible help. I will not think twice to recommend your web site to any individual who would like care about this problem.

There are some fascinating deadlines on this article but I don抰 know if I see all of them center to heart. There’s some validity however I will take hold opinion until I look into it further. Good article , thanks and we wish extra! Added to FeedBurner as effectively

I would like to express appreciation to the writer just for bailing me out of this type of crisis. After surfing throughout the online world and getting strategies which were not productive, I thought my entire life was gone. Being alive minus the answers to the problems you have resolved as a result of your main review is a crucial case, and the ones that would have negatively affected my entire career if I hadn’t encountered your web blog. Your primary understanding and kindness in taking care of everything was useful. I am not sure what I would’ve done if I had not discovered such a thing like this. I can also at this time relish my future. Thank you so much for your reliable and results-oriented guide. I will not think twice to suggest your web site to anybody who should get guidelines about this issue.

I and also my pals have been viewing the good solutions on your website and so all of a sudden I got a terrible feeling I never expressed respect to the web site owner for those techniques. My people came as a consequence excited to read them and have now pretty much been having fun with those things. Thank you for actually being indeed thoughtful and also for utilizing varieties of beneficial guides most people are really eager to discover. My very own sincere apologies for not saying thanks to earlier.

I and my buddies appeared to be following the nice tips on the website then immediately I got a terrible suspicion I never thanked the site owner for them. Most of the men had been glad to read them and have in actuality been having fun with those things. I appreciate you for truly being so kind and for utilizing this sort of great issues most people are really wanting to be informed on. My very own honest apologies for not expressing gratitude to you earlier.

Needed to send you that little bit of observation in order to say thanks a lot yet again about the breathtaking concepts you’ve featured here. This is generous with you in giving unhampered just what many people would have marketed as an e book to generate some bucks for themselves, specifically since you might have done it if you ever wanted. The secrets additionally worked to become great way to fully grasp that the rest have similar fervor really like my very own to grasp many more when it comes to this problem. I am sure there are lots of more fun occasions in the future for those who examine your website.

I simply wished to appreciate you all over again. I am not sure the things I would have done without the type of hints revealed by you concerning such topic. Completely was a very horrifying problem in my opinion, however , being able to see a professional tactic you solved it forced me to weep with fulfillment. Extremely happier for the assistance as well as hope that you know what a powerful job that you are providing instructing some other people using a blog. More than likely you have never encountered any of us.

I simply wished to appreciate you once again. I’m not certain what I would have done without the solutions provided by you concerning such a subject matter. It became a very scary issue for me personally, however , noticing a well-written form you solved it made me to weep for delight. Extremely happy for the work and believe you are aware of a powerful job your are carrying out educating the mediocre ones by way of your website. Most likely you haven’t got to know any of us.

Thank you so much for giving everyone a very spectacular opportunity to discover important secrets from this website. It can be so great plus stuffed with a lot of fun for me personally and my office friends to search the blog at the very least 3 times in one week to see the latest stuff you have got. And lastly, I’m also at all times amazed for the cool pointers you serve. Some 3 tips on this page are essentially the most effective I have had.

I truly wanted to post a small word to appreciate you for some of the fabulous ways you are giving out at this website. My extensive internet look up has at the end of the day been compensated with sensible information to share with my guests. I ‘d express that most of us readers are definitely blessed to exist in a useful website with very many outstanding people with useful tips. I feel really grateful to have encountered the weblog and look forward to tons of more fun times reading here. Thanks once again for all the details.

My spouse and i got now ecstatic that John could do his reports through the entire precious recommendations he was given from your own web pages. It is now and again perplexing just to possibly be giving away helpful hints which usually many others have been selling. We grasp we’ve got you to thank because of that. Most of the illustrations you made, the easy blog menu, the relationships you will make it easier to create — it’s got all extraordinary, and it’s really facilitating our son and us recognize that the theme is cool, and that’s exceedingly fundamental. Thank you for all!

Thank you for your entire effort on this web site. Kim enjoys working on internet research and it is easy to understand why. We all notice all relating to the powerful means you offer efficient suggestions by means of this blog and inspire contribution from people on the subject matter so our own simple princess is undoubtedly starting to learn so much. Take pleasure in the remaining portion of the new year. You have been performing a good job.

I and my pals have been taking note of the best ideas from the website and so instantly got a terrible suspicion I had not expressed respect to the web blog owner for them. These ladies happened to be so joyful to study them and now have undoubtedly been taking advantage of those things. We appreciate you truly being indeed thoughtful and then for opting for this kind of quality subjects most people are really needing to discover. My very own sincere apologies for not expressing gratitude to you sooner.

I wish to point out my respect for your generosity for all those that really need help with this particular study. Your special dedication to passing the solution all over had been amazingly powerful and has specifically empowered some individuals like me to realize their pursuits. Your new helpful publication signifies this much to me and even further to my office workers. Warm regards; from everyone of us.

My wife and i got really thrilled that Michael managed to round up his inquiry while using the ideas he grabbed through your web pages. It’s not at all simplistic to simply choose to be offering guidelines others might have been trying to sell. And now we consider we have the writer to be grateful to because of that. The specific explanations you have made, the straightforward web site navigation, the relationships you can help to create — it’s all extraordinary, and it’s assisting our son in addition to the family understand the subject matter is brilliant, and that’s seriously vital. Many thanks for all the pieces!

I wish to show my passion for your generosity for those who absolutely need guidance on this particular question. Your special commitment to getting the message all through appears to be rather informative and have without exception empowered guys much like me to reach their dreams. Your amazing warm and helpful useful information means so much a person like me and a whole lot more to my office workers. Many thanks; from all of us.

Thank you so much for providing individuals with remarkably superb opportunity to read articles and blog posts from this website. It is always very amazing and full of a great time for me personally and my office peers to visit the blog the equivalent of thrice per week to read the newest things you will have. And lastly, I am just at all times motivated for the great concepts served by you. Selected 1 facts in this post are basically the most suitable I’ve had.

Добавить комментарий

*